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Sunday, May 12, 2002 

The hurdles on the road to joint opposition candidate

By GITAU WARIGI 

The deep antipathy towards the media by many in the National Alliance for Change is a fact. There is an exaggerated belief within the Alliance that the press is out to stymie the Alliance's progress by constantly harping on the issue of a joint presidential candidate.

It was back to the same on Tuesday following an Alliance meeting, when differences over the timing of the selection of such a candidate surfaced in the open. Journalists were accused of bringing up a "non-issue," with Alliance co-convenor Noah Wekesa, the Kwanza MP, stressing that the agenda of the meeting held at Nairobi's PanAfric Hotel was to bring together the National Executive Committees and Parliamentary Groups of the organisations that make up the alliance.

But there did appear to be differences of approach, and TV crews wasted no time in relaying snippets in their evening news broadcasts. On one hand were Ford Kenya's Michael Wamalwa and the National Party of Kenya's Charity Ngilu, who at the opening session prior to the closed-door meeting spoke with some urgency on the need to agree on this candidate and his (or her) supporting team.

On the other hand was the Democratic Party's Mwai Kibaki, arguing from the seemingly isolated position that the matter should not be rushed, and that it were better if the Alliance went out to the public to popularise its programmes first, presumably via a series of public baraza. The message that filtered out was that Mr Wamalwa and Mrs Ngilu were ready for the big move, while Mr Kibaki, typical of what his critics have long mumbled, was dragging his feet.

The Alliance came up with a different spin, anxious against giving the impression of a leaking ship. Rangwe's Shem Ochuodho, a key player, put it thus: "There really was no contradiction. Mr Kibaki doesn't dispute what Mr Wamalwa and Mrs Ngilu said about the urgency of selecting a joint candidate. What Mr Kibaki was saying was that we need to hit the road first."

The apparent breakdown in communication between the Alliance and the media would appear to arise from the fact that what the Alliance spokesmen claim to be a "non-issue" actually is a burning issue even among ordinary members of the Alliance.

The agenda of Tuesday's meeting may have been to update members on the progress achieved so far. This, according to Dr Ochuodho, includes the ongoing work of the various Alliance committees, the formulation of a joint economic policy, joint constitutional reform proposals, and so on. But even he admits that the issue that remains paramount in the popular mind is that of a joint candidate, such that he concedes that the Alliance leaders actually played into the hands of the media by discussing it the way they did.

Even more intense anger than the media is attracting from that end is the fury towards Kanu secretary-general Raila Odinga, who issued a statement following the Alliance meeting. His statement was, however, seen in many quarters as veering into abuse.

Mr Odinga, whose statements against opponents have been taking an especially rough edge of late, dismissed the Alliance as "this confused spectacle calling itself an Opposition." For good measure, he added that it was home to "mediocrity." The secretary-general's attitude has touched a raw nerve in the Alliance. Mr Wamalwa told Mr Odinga to mind his Kanu business.

Dagoretti's Beth Mugo added: "Raila's language is too abusive. It is not giving Kanu dignity. He really needs to stop abusing others and concentrate on the affairs of his adopted party."

Whatever else they may agree on about a joint candidate, the main Alliance players approach the problem from very different perspectives. Though they would be loathe to put it this way, the DP's silent position is that politics is all about numbers and that within the NAC family, it is they with those numbers. This view remains stubbornly embedded within the core of the party despite a growing conviction from other Opposition ranks that Mr Kibaki is a "has-been" who has twice ran for office unsuccessfully and looks too tired to manage a third try.

From Ford Kenya, the view is sharply different. Mr Wamalwa's selling point has always been that it is not good politics to have another Kikuyu take the presidency, which would potentially be the case if Mr Kibaki becomes the joint Opposition candidate. From time to time, Mr Wamalwa gets reported speaking like that at various gatherings deep in his Bungoma heartland, though he always turns around to deny it when he pops back to Nairobi. Mrs Ngilu probably shares the same sentiments, though she carefully avoids saying so in public. But what distinguishes her most from her fellow Alliance principals is her reported willingness (desire even, according to well-placed sources), not to run for the presidency again. Whether this decision is out of eagerness not to be an impediment in the search of Opposition unity or due to other considerations nobody quite says.

Still, of the major Alliance principals, Mrs Ngilu's position seems to be the most shaky. The vaunted following in Ukambani she demonstrated in 1997 has withered calamitously. It took the Kilome by-election last year to expose the extent to which this has happened.

Her other fatal weakness is understood to be in finances. Some of those who had helped to finance her presidential campaign in 1997 have shifted attention away from her. The latest was wealthy gemstone dealer Johnstone Muthama, a very important backer up to the formation of the NPK, of which he was patron. He defected back to Kanu last week.

Mr Wamalwa is in no better shape either. Reports about him being threatened with the auctioneer's hammer have been rife for months. This in turn has raised questions about his preparedness for a serious presidential run that is bound to be expensive.

But neither are the DP's finances anything to write home about. Mr Kibaki's advantage over the other two is that he enjoys the support of some very well-heeled Kikuyu friends. That enabled him to run for the presidency in 1992, and again in 1997 Ð and quite possibly again this year Ð without having to suffer the sort of extreme financial strain most other candidates would feel.

Within the Alliance, Mrs Ngilu has turned out to be the strongest proponent of a merger of the participating parties. Seen from the perspective of forming a united bulwark in the face of the March Kanu-NDP merger, her vision is probably unimpeachable. What is more, her position is said to enjoy the support of a majority of the Alliance's participating groups, especially the smaller ones. A prime holdout, however, is the DP, which prefers the issue being broached after the General Election, not before.

Some of Mrs Ngilu's Alliance colleagues think her insistence arises from her relative position of weakness. One MP suggests that an Alliance that is transformed into a unified party and in which Mrs Ngilu has a high profile could transform her fortunes in Ukambani a lot better than her NPK, which failed to rise to the occasion in the Kilome by-election. The same would be true for other partners like Dr Ochuodho who will be operating in hostile territory back home in Nyanza.

It's not all a question of self-interest though, others point out. Besides sending a powerful demonstration that the Alliance means business about unity, the vexed search for a joint candidate would be greatly simplified in the event of a merger of the participating groups.

However, the DP thinks it is too early to talk of mergers and that it were better if each party approached the General Election as a distinct outfit, albeit under an arrangement where they all co-operated closely. One DP legislator pointed out that a merger would throw up all manner of logistical complications. The old parties would have to be deregistered and a new one set up, fresh officials appointed and a new name given to the outfit. Then would follow the business of selling the new party to the areas formerly covered by the defunct parties. All this would generate haggling and friction, he felt.

Just about as dismissive as Kanu has been towards the Alliance's plans is the Ford People-Safina axis led by Mr Paul Muite and Mr Simeon Nyachae. Their gripe has for long been against what they see as the impudence of a clubby group of three or so Oppositionists sitting together behind closed doors ("over breakfast") to determine who a joint Opposition candidate will be.

In reality, a good deal of their venom is personality-driven. There is also the belief within this axis that the DP intends to dictate the direction the Alliance takes, to the detriment of the smaller parties.

If the Alliance were to live up to its vow of ensuring any joint candidate they throw up will have popular support from the rank-and-file of the allied parties, that would considerably undermine the Ford People-Safina contention that the Alliance has bred an "undemocratic" culture. Last week, Mr Wamalwa disclosed that they were working on various models, one of which was organising for an electoral college of 1,000 electors drawn from each of the constituencies.

The last time Ford People came up with its proposal, it was about an electoral college comprising an equal number of electors from each ethnic community.
 

 
 
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