The likelihood of most Kenyans emerging from the pit of abject poverty is diminishing, with researchers warning that this will remain almost impossible – at least for another decade.

Nearly a million more Kenyans have in the past year alone joined the ranks of a third of the population of 30 million, who can't afford a decent meal, education or adequate health care. This has increased the total number of people living below the Sh78-a-day extreme poverty level to 10 million, according to the Kenya Human Development Report 2001: Addressing Social and Economic Disparities for Human Development.

Most of the extremely poor people are to be found in northern and western Kenya, while the least poor are in Central and Nairobi provinces, says the report released recently by the University of Nairobi. This is not surprising as Nairobi and Central provinces have traditionally been favoured due to their proximity to the seat of power since colonial times.

The British colonisers, having chosen Nairobi as the capital, ensured that infrastructure such as the railway line and permanent roads were built. North Eastern Province and other remote areas shunned by the colonial administration and settlers still lag behind today.

A research fellow at the University of Nairobi, Dr Rosemary Atieno, says: "This trend is confirmed by the results of welfare monitoring surveys that indicate that the level of poverty rose from 40.3 per cent in 1994 to 52.3 per cent in 1997."

In fact, Kenyans are poorer today than they were five years ago, with the most vulnerable groups being single mothers, pastoralists, slum dwellers and peasants.

The percentage of Kenyans who cannot afford a decent meal, medical services and education has increased by nine per cent – from 26 per cent in 1997, to 35 per cent last year – despite the recent launch, by the government, of the much talked about poverty eradication strategy.

In actual terms, 10 million Kenyans live from hand to mouth – most of them in rural areas, where two thirds of the population is based. The human development report notes that Kenya is among the 30 most unequal societies in the world and also in the top 10 low-income economies with a high concentration of income.

"With the top 10 per cent of the population controlling 35 per cent of the income, Kenya compares unfavourably with other countries in Africa at similar levels of development," it adds.

Economist and Sunday Nation columnist Robert Shaw concurs. In a recent commentary, he pointed out that Kenya has the second worst income disparity in the world.

"Some even estimate that 47 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product is concentrated in Nairobi alone," Shaw added. "This is disturbing for a country where agriculture and related activities directly and indirectly account for around 70 per cent of employment and 50 per cent of economic activity". 

The 111-page report says the human development index – which measures the average achievements made by a country in meeting basic needs, such as, food, shelter and health – has declined sharply in the past five years. 

The report cites a decline in life expectancy from 60 to 55 years, against the global average of 85 years. The United Nations Development Programme's Resident Representative in Kenya, Dr Paul Andre de la Porte, fears that life expectancy may decline further if poverty levels and the HIV/Aids infection rates continue increasing. 

He says: "The government and the non-governmental organisations should do their best to tackle the lethal aids disease, which is also a major cause of the declining life expectancy rate."

The head of the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Nairobi, Prof Dorothy McCormick, agrees with the UN representative's sentiments. Kenya, Prof McCormick adds, will continue to rank low in the global development list if appropriate efforts targeting the poor and other vulnerable groups are not made.

Though the government promised to spend Sh20 billion this year to fight poverty – after the finalisation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Action Plan – there is nothing to smile about as the situation is worsening.

However, not everybody in Kenya lives from hand to mouth. A small percentage of Kenyans, adds Prof Peter Kimuyu, an economist at the University of Nairobi, have more than they need.

Majority of the rich men and women who control the country's frail economy live in Nairobi and Central provinces, further worsening the already existing regional inequalities in the country's eight provinces. The others are Western, Nyanza, Coast, North Eastern, Rift Valley and Eastern.

"While it is widely acknowledged that there are wide disparities in Kenya's income distribution, there is a considerable information gap as to the specific interplay between this maldistribution and poverty," Prof Kimuyu adds.

The available data, though inadequate, tends to suggest a negative association between equity and reduction in poverty. Annual income per capita remains highest in Nairobi at Sh78,644, followed by Coast (Sh18,840), and Central Province, Sh17,829. Nyanza and Western have the lowest per capita incomes of Sh14,169 and Sh11,191respectively.

The researchers argue that although the inhabitants of North Eastern Province enjoy a relatively higher per capita income of Sh17,212, lower literacy levels and poor access to health, have hampered development.

"This negative gap implies the need to re-direct resources towards human development in the region rather than improving income," Dr de la Porte says.

Many researchers have shouted themselves hoarse on the need for the government to invest more in human resources the way the Asian Tigers – Taiwan, Thailand, Korea and Singapore – did years ago to push them out of the global poverty circle they had been in for years.

Coast Province is another typical example. Although it has a higher per capita income ranking, its Human Development Index is low due to an economically poor hinterland, characterised by lower school enrolment rate, lower life expectancy and life opportunities.

Education, it is believed, can lead to overall socio-economic progress through higher labour productivity, improved health and nutrition and enhanced partnerships in the development process.

Despite the all out government efforts to uplift the standard of education countrywide – even allocating 87.2 per cent of its social spending on basic education, combined enrolment rates have fallen from 91.4 per cent in 1991 to 88 per cent today.

Though the high expenditure on formal schooling is positive in terms of the potential for human development, economists believe it has constrained progress in special education, teacher training and improvement in vocational skills.

The human development report faults the government for allocating few resources to teacher training and schools for the handicapped. 

It says the introduction of cost-sharing in schools as part of the implementation of the Structural Adjustment Programmes, saw the government withdraw financial support for the provision of teaching and learning materials, and which is now to blame for the high dropout rate.

Dr Atieno says: "Increasing poverty and limited government expenditure on basic school equipment and supplies has led to low completion rates, which in turn lower human development." 

She says human development calls for increased investments in rural literacy at both formal and non-formal schooling to enhance people's chances of participating in productive activities.

The snail pace development being witnessed in the education sector – as the population continues to swell – has worsened gender disparities both in the urban and rural areas.

Dr Catherine Masinde, aformer economics lecturer at the University of Nairobi, says Kenya seriously needs to empower women as a first step towards poverty reduction.

She adds that research has shown a direct link between gender inequality andpoverty.

"There are gross inequalities between men and women. Such inequalities are not just damaging to the interests of women but also to people's livelihood strategies," the report acknowledges.

Legal and cultural discriminationimpede women's access to property ownership, especially land and employment. 

Many human rights groups and Members of Parliament have all along called for the repeal of archaic anti-women laws.

"They need to be educated and have access to credit and property ownership as a first step towards poverty eradication," says Dr Masinde. 

The report does not spare the government. It blamesbiased policies for the inequalities, especially those that have favoured rich agricultural areas and to an extent specific geographical areas.

"The result is that there are wide regional differences in access to public resources such as health, education and infrastructure," it adds.

An Assistant Minister for Planning, Mr John Marimoi, disagrees, arguing that the government is doing all it can to improve the lives of its poor citizens.

"Though we have problems, we are trying our best and even holding continuous negotiations with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for more aid," says Mr Marimoi.

The assistant minister says that lack of money for the poverty eradication campaign has been the government's major challenge. 

At the regional level, Central Province has the lowest number of poor people in the country, according to the University of Nairobi researchers. 

The province, which boasts some of the richest agricultural areas, has only 30.7 per cent of the population living below the poverty line, according to the research.

Nairobi comes second, with 32.4 per cent of its population lacking basic human needs, such as, food, shelter and security.

The figures are way below those of Nyanza, Western and North Eastern provinces, which average 40 per cent.

However, in terms of absolute numbers, the Rift Valley leads the pack with nearly 2.6 million people surviving on less than a dollar a day.

Next is Nyanza, with 1.9 million people, Eastern 1.8 million, Western 1.4 million. North Eastern Province has the highest percentage of poor people in Kenya, with 44.8 of its population living in abject poverty.

Despite all the depressing statistics, Kenya is still ranked a medium human development country along with Ghana, Egypt, Cameroun and South Africa.

To help boost Kenya's development record, the Institute of Development Studies would like to see the government to do more in the area of environmental conservation.

The poor environmental management being practised, the institute warns, will onlyaggravate poverty .

"A country with environmental problems, such as, deforestation, depletion of fish and other marine stocks, pollution and poor conservation of fauna and flora is potentially unable to assure its population a good quality of life," the report says.

The researchers have expressed concern over the continuous loss of forest cover, which accounts for less than two per cent of the country's greenery.

The government, they warn, must rise and tackle poverty. They believe poverty tends to compound the already existing environmental problems of inadequate water, poor sanitation and housing.

To achieve the intended goals, Dr Atieno argues that "mature politics" is of great importance.

"The political process in Kenya is central to human development since it is the basis of the mobilisation of socio-economic and political capital for governance and decision making," she adds.

But all the researchers are in agreement that political pluralism is good for Kenya. They say the reintroduction of the multi-party system has enabled Kenyans to enjoy civil and political rights "which were non-existent in the single-party era."