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News
Saturday, June 12, 1999

Experts' view on economy

By MUSYOKA wa KYENDO

The implementation of the measures proposed in the Budget will determine how fast the economy grows, post-Budget reviews by major business advisory firms have concluded.

The budget thrust is economic recovery, poverty alleviation and employment creation. To achieve this, the government has pledged to:

  • Rehabilitate and upgrade economic infrastructure;
  • Reduce the tax burden;
  • Rationalise the civil service to improve productivity;
  • Improve security, and:
  • Protect local industry against cheap imports.
It was read against a backdrop of a dismal economic performance by internal weaknesses such as inefficient marketing boards, poor infrastructure and corruption.

Mr Kitili Mbathi of Citibank, the guest speaker at a presentation by KPMG Peat Marwick, said Kenyans had grown poorer for the second-year-running because population growth had surpassed economic growth.

Echoing similar sentiments, Mr Praful Shah of PriceWaterhouseCoopers said the economy was on a rocky road due to a persistent slump, which had resulted in a low rate of investment. Investment last year was 16 per cent of GDP as opposed to a target of 24.

Various analysts agreed that some of the measures were sensible and could be implemented immediately. Among these are the proposed tax measures.

The Minister for Finance reduced VAT from 16 to 15 per cent, duty on malted beer to 90 per cent from 95 per cent, and raised the Road Maintenance Levy, by a shilling for every litre.

He widened income tax bands and lowered the top rate for both corporates and individuals by 2.5 per cent to 30 per cent.

Ms Shaila Adamali of PriceWaterhouseCooper said a few people, especially hotels and restaurants, would cheer the Budget as domestic indirect taxes, including VAT and the Catering Training levy had been lowered from 18 to 15 per cent.

However, there was consensus that the one shilling rise in the road levy coupled with the weakening shilling heightened inflationary pressure.

In this case, the government took with the right hand what it gave with the left.

The experts agree that some measures such as the rationalisation of the public sector and rehabilitation of economic infrastructure would need more than just pronouncements. They need serious government commitment for they have political implications.

The restructuring of the public sector, said Mr Robin Cahill, a senior Partner at KPMG Peat Marwick, had political implications since it meant contracting ministries and retrenchment.

"There is a price to pay here and the government must demonstrate political commitment in this area," he said.

Generally, the Budget was welcomed as a nice speech but experts agreed the test would be in the implementation.

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