Saturday, June 12, 1999
Experts' view on economy
By MUSYOKA wa KYENDO
The implementation of the measures proposed in the Budget will determine
how fast the economy grows, post-Budget reviews by major business advisory
firms have concluded.
The budget thrust is economic recovery, poverty alleviation and
employment creation. To achieve this, the government has pledged to:
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Rehabilitate and upgrade economic infrastructure;
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Rationalise the civil service to improve productivity;
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Protect local industry against cheap imports.
It was read against a backdrop of a dismal economic performance by
internal weaknesses such as inefficient marketing boards, poor infrastructure
and corruption.
Mr Kitili Mbathi of Citibank, the guest speaker at a presentation
by KPMG Peat Marwick, said Kenyans had grown poorer for the second-year-running
because population growth had surpassed economic growth.
Echoing similar sentiments, Mr Praful Shah of PriceWaterhouseCoopers
said the economy was on a rocky road due to a persistent slump, which had
resulted in a low rate of investment. Investment last year was 16 per cent
of GDP as opposed to a target of 24.
Various analysts agreed that some of the measures were sensible
and could be implemented immediately. Among these are the proposed tax
measures.
The Minister for Finance reduced VAT from 16 to 15 per cent, duty
on malted beer to 90 per cent from 95 per cent, and raised the Road Maintenance
Levy, by a shilling for every litre.
He widened income tax bands and lowered the top rate for both
corporates and individuals by 2.5 per cent to 30 per cent.
Ms Shaila Adamali of PriceWaterhouseCooper said a few people,
especially hotels and restaurants, would cheer the Budget as domestic indirect
taxes, including VAT and the Catering Training levy had been lowered from
18 to 15 per cent.
However, there was consensus that the one shilling rise in the
road levy coupled with the weakening shilling heightened inflationary pressure.
In this case, the government took with the right hand what it
gave with the left.
The experts agree that some measures such as the rationalisation of
the public sector and rehabilitation of economic infrastructure would need
more than just pronouncements. They need serious government commitment
for they have political implications.
The restructuring of the public sector, said Mr Robin Cahill,
a senior Partner at KPMG Peat Marwick, had political implications since
it meant contracting ministries and retrenchment.
"There is a price to pay here and the government must demonstrate
political commitment in this area," he said.
Generally, the Budget was welcomed as a nice speech but experts
agreed the test would be in the implementation.
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