By SUNDAY NATION Team 

In the wobbly coalition that is Narc, the idea of sacking him from the government would seem unthinkable. He is the axis that a vocal section of the LDP revolves around, and his forced departure would raise the very real possibility of Narc's break-up. 

When calls were made last Saturday by Starehe MP Maina Kamanda and Nakuru North MP Mirugi Kariuki for Mr Odinga's dismissal, the minister was away in Europe on official business. But the sheer commotion this caused was instrumental in the calling of the Narc PG last week.

 It is a given that sacking Mr Odinga would provoke a major upheaval in Narc. Former cabinet minister Dalmas Otieno says that "the Luos would automatically move out. He (Raila) would tell them that Kibaki has let them down."

Virtually nobody disputes that this would happen. But Mr Otieno doubts that other chunks of the LDP – Luhyaland, Ukambani, Maasailand or the Coast – would follow Mr Odinga if he moved from Narc.

He adds: "Any issue that tends to polarise the Luo and Kikuyu becomes a national security matter. Both groups are very difficult to deal with. They have community ambitions. Change happens when they act."

Although Mr Odinga is a force to reckon with, the palpably bad relations he has with certain powerful figures in the system raises the question of how long this situation could possibly last without something snapping. It has become common to hear some of these figures say, privately, that they don't see themselves working with Mr Odinga all the way to 2007.

Subukia MP Koigi wa Wamwere says Mr Odinga "is in government, but not in power", quite telling of the frayed relations between the minister and the powers that be and the place he finds himself in the pecking order.

There is fear, no doubt. Business at the National Constitutional Conference, which has been going on at the Bomas of Kenya, is in near-paralysis because of NAK power brokers who are adamantly opposed to him becoming executive prime minister. Mr Odinga's own LDP supporters, on the other hand, have contributed to the stalemate by refusing to countenance anything short of that.

Some very well-connected people in this government intimate that at the beginning, President Kibaki was genuinely inclined to have Mr Odinga as his prime minister, though in a non-executive capacity. Then Mr Odinga sought to push for what he thought was his rightful reward in a manner the President may have considered too abrasive.

 It is said the President still has no objection to Mr Odinga getting the premiership once the Constitution is re-written, but he has stated categorically ruled out the possibility of having "two centres of power". 

Former Runyenjes MP Njeru Kathangu has his views on the proposal to dismiss Mr Odinga from the cabinet. "If the President wants to fire Raila, he could, of course, do so. He has the constitutional powers. But that would replay what Mzee Kenyatta did to Jaramogi [Odinga] and repeat the cycle of 40 years ago. This would create very big animosity and hatred. I would expect the President to exercise utmost wisdom in the way he handles this issue."

At the height of the infighting during the Bomas II conference, an exasperated Mr Odinga is on record as having told the steering committee that his name not be considered for the executive premiership if that is what it would take to cool the fierce NAK campaign against him.

The powerful anti-Raila brigade in Narc do appreciate the dangers of sacking the minister. They would prefer a situation in which Mr Odinga could leave out of his own volition, maybe as a result of a political environment that would make his continued stay in government untenable. 

Either way, it is difficult to see how any departure that is not entirely voluntary would fail to boomerang on Narc.

Mr Odinga and his LDP supporters have made it plain they are not leaving the government whatever is done to them. That means those who are anxious to see him go are in a bind. Checkmate.

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