But there is another issue here. This was designed to be a ‘share holding’ government. Hon Charity Ngilu, Moody Awori and Raila Odinga are not in the cabinet because the president likes them. They bought ‘shares’ into the Narc government using their bloc votes as currency. Those asking for the sacking of Mr Raila Odinga are therefore mistaken. Mr Odinga, Hon Ngilu, and vice-president Awori are in the cabinet because they ‘own’ part of the Narc government. In sum, they are going nowhere! The President cannot fire any of them without destroying the country. Or can he?

There is yet another area where we seem to be missing the point. Those calling on the President to end the Narc wrangles are not serious. What do we expect him to do? Make a ‘roadside declaration’ and order the Narc factions to stop fighting?

In my view, the President should maintain his silence. This is so because the Narc crisis will not be resolved through a presidential decree. Talking tough will also not do. The solution to this crisis is simple: compromise. And if the President is not ready to lead by example in this area, then we must allow him to be silent.

Similarly, we must appreciate that the President is a member of NAK. As such, his thinking is first and foremost NAK, and then Narc. He is therefore bound to be partisan in this wrangle. And those asking him to say something are probably not listening. In silence, he is speaking volumes. I therefore do not see why we should bother him by asking where he stands on the Narc crisis. The only thing we can do is to encourage him to be non-partisan. If we succeed in doing so, then he is likely to speak!

Let us now consider the President’s trip to the US. Reviews in international media suggest that this was a flop. The President and his team did not create an impression at all. And this is probably why a week after the trip, the US ambassador to Kenya Mr William Bellamy told the country that "The US is asking whether (President) Kibaki will be able to carry out (economic) reforms". This statement did not pop out of Mr Bellamy’s head on the spur of the moment. Diplomats are not known to be this blunt. And not after President Kibaki’s state visit a week before!

In my view, this was a contemplated statement arising from an assessment of the President and his programme while he was in the US. Incidentally, Mr Bellamy was echoing a statement made by another diplomat in Kenya last week. This statement was contained in an article in ‘The Economist’ of October 9th 2003 entitled ‘Going Wrong?’ To put it very mildly, the diplomat did not believe that President Kibaki was in charge. Although this diplomat was offensive in the way he described the President, we must not ignore the message the foreigners are sending. What they are telling Kenyans is that, something is wrong. And that because of this, their governments are increasingly losing confidence in Narc. In my view, we cannot blame them. 

Take a recent example. A few weeks ago, the Transport Minister Mr John Michuki ordered all matatus (commuter taxis) to install safety belts in their cars. As the minister and the matatu owners did their fights, containers with seat belts were found ‘lying at the port’. Of course the minister was bound to deny the existence of such containers. But in denying this, he confirmed our fears. In the court of public opinion, Hon Michuki’s order to the matatu owners was not about passenger safety. 

Someone in government saw the matatu industry as a ‘cash cow’. And to access the cow, they used the minister and his powers. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this; after all, a goat eats where it is tethered. However, if this was indeed a scheme, it was pedestrian. In fact, it is telling when a government system cannot get a simple corruption deal straight! Sometimes I wonder why the ‘cowboy contractors’ were recalled in the first place. 

In my view, the reason why simple things cannot be done competently is because Narc is far too casual. They are casual about ‘business deals’ like the one regarding safety belts and have also handled the wrangles within the party recklessly. Similarly, the President’s trip to the US was casually handled and poorly organised. Other than showing up at the White House and introducing the ‘unbuogable team’ to the Americans, there was no other agenda. The team did not address the strategic groups, although the goodwill was there. Put simply, they did not know what they wanted. And like in this trip, I get the impression that they have no plan regarding the country. This is why they must call a referendum on the issues in the draft constitution. 

This draft is the route-map for where we want to go as Kenyans. And although the idea of a prime minister has been shot down, we should probably re-think it. The idea here is that we need a ‘twin engine’ government. If one performs incompetently and without efficiency, we can rely on the other to stabilize things. In other words, we are safer as a country with two power centres. This is what the people of Kenya told the Ghai Commission and they are likely to repeat the same thought if a referendum is held. 

But instead of seeking our views on this matter again, Narc should be advised to develop a power sharing arrangement internally. If they do not, Kenyans are likely to vote for an executive prime minister in a referendum. This way, the matter would be concluded. The question to NAK therefore is: do you want to gamble on this? As they contemplate the question, we should remind them that you only gamble what you are ready to lose! A referendum can either legitimise or ‘bastardise’ a regime. Is NAK ready for the options? 

And now a story for President Kibaki. Once upon a time, the lion decided to ensure that all the animals in the jungle knew that he was king. He was so confident that he by-passed the smaller animals and went straight to the bear. " Who is the king of the jungle?" the lion asked. The bear replied, "Why, you are, of course."  The lion gave a mighty roar of approval. Next he went to the tiger who gave him a similar response. But when he got to the elephant, he was grabbed and whirled in the air several times, slammed into a tree, pounded on the ground, and then thrown into a nearby lake. 

Beaten, bruised and battered, the lion struggled to its feet. He looked at the elephant through sad and bloody eyes and said: " just because you do not know the answer, you don’t have to be so mean!" 

Like the lion in this story, the President should not worry about his status. If LDP has been mean and rough, it is only because they do not know the answer! Whether we have a rough referendum or not, the President’s position is secure. However, we should mention that leadership is not position; it is action!

Mr Ngunyi is a political scientist with ConsultAfrika, a research and consulting firm. i mutahi@iconnect.co.ke .

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