Sunday, January 28, 2001
Think outside the box Bush, and think hard
By MUTUMA MATHIU
Americans have not made a wise choice. Mr George W. Bush shouldn't have
been made President.
A president with a shaky legitimacy is not best placed to deal with
the global responsibilities that America has wished upon itself, the responsibilities
of the only superpower. I also believe that the cabinet he has lined up
would have served his father very well 10 years ago but that today it does
not have the fresh – even radical – view required to provide leadership
in finding a solution to the world's most intractable problems.
I also think Mr Bush might have been born with 10 gold spoons
stuck in his mouth, but he wasn't born under a lucky star; as soon as he
walks through the White House gates, the American economy isn't feeling
too good. California – the largest piston in the economy – is threatened
with the kind of power blackouts we have experienced and a host of other
domestic problems.
But it is not the domestic issues that worry me, even though – the world
economic hegemony being what it is – America's domestic problems end up
on my bankbook. What worries me is Mr Bush's ability to deal with the major
global issues. If he follows through what he said during the campaign,
then Mr Bush isn't going to be able to deal effectively with our concerns
– Africa's economic and debt crises and Aids.
Even more important are the issues of global security. In 1998, an American
mistake was visited on this country. It left hundreds of us dead and damage
that is yet to be completely repaired, if it ever will. It is the generation
responsible for the policy blunders that created these kinds of mistakes
that Mr Bush has brought back.
What exactly did Mr Bush mean when he twice said in his inaugural speech
that "an angel rides the whirlwind and directs this storm''. Does "this
storm" mean America's historical saga?
I believe the anti-American sentiment that culminated in the 1998 attack
is widespread and deep, particularly in the Middle East and the Arab and
Islamic world. I think most ordinary people in these countries blame America
for the real and latent instabilities in their countries. If the analysts
of the Middle Eastern problem I have been reading are representative of
the ordinary Arab, then a lot of people believe that America has interfered
to create unrepresentative, unpopular and undemocratic governments which
it has then exploited to obtain natural resources, especially oil, and
used to sustain an injustice against the Palestinian people, and Arabs
in general.
Going by the number of coups America is said to have backed in Egypt,
Jordan, Syria and Iraq since the First World War, then it begins to make
sense why the people of these countries believe that America has had a
hand in creating the elite that rules them today and is, therefore, at
least partly, responsible for the absence of democracy in their countries.
I doubt that Mr Bush will be able to think outside the box in the Middle
Eastern peace process. Will he be able to overcome his right-wing conservatism
to realise that his country has not been an honest broker in the process
and that (a) there never will be peace in the Middle East unless there
is a country called Palestine, however small, however disjointed, and home
of the Palestinians, and (b) there never will be real stability unless
America disowns the regimes it has guarded so jealously for decades and
allows the evolution of representative and democratic institutions?
The question of the day is perhaps no longer the security of Israel
– most of its enemies, including the Palestinian leadership,have accepted
its right to exist – but the future of the Palestinian people. The Lebanon
identifies itself as the only Christian country in the Middle East (Israel
practises Judaism) but the Maronite Christians, who have traditionally
called the shots, constitute perhaps less than half of the population.
The rest of them are Muslims, a lot of them Palestinians. If Jordan were
a democracy, Palestinians would most probably be determining who governs
it, for it's half Palestinian.
The point is that two inevitable forces – democracy and time – can only
empower the Palestinians. Five hundred years from today, Israel will be
perhaps 500 hundred times stronger than it is. But Palestinians won't be
poor and living in refugee camps either. They will be in a position to
influence the direction of a large part of the Middle East. And that direction
will depend on the kind of deal that Mr Bush is able to cut with a certain
72-year-old engineer name of Arafat al Qudawa Al Husseini, namely, Yasser
Arafat.
It is the ability of the new American administration to see 500 years
in the future, to realise that supporting undemocratic regimes provides
the oil and stability today, but offers no guarantees for the future, that
Palestinians are throwing rocks in the streets today, but will be throwing
something totally different a century from today. It is the ability of
people steeped in conservatism and suffering a king size Cold-War hangover
to see these things that I am doubting.
Mr Gore has his problems, but he is a modern man. Mr Bush's team brings
with it a certain whiff of mildewed tweeds.
* This columnist can be reached at mutuma@dailynation.com