The election of billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra to the premiership is having far-reaching ramifications on the political landscape in Thailand. In particular, by capturing an unprecedented majority of seats, Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais love Thais) has a rare opportunity to exercise power in a manner not seen for decades. Previous administrations have tended to be a loosely-held together motley crew of coalitions better known for internecine warfare and votes of no-confidence than anything else.

These coalitions have not often benefited from the most inspired leadership and, as a result, the country has been stumbling from one crisis to another.

The outgoing prime minister Chuan Leekpai came in when the country was desperately crying out to be led out of the economic crisis of 1997. What the Thais needed at the time was someone who could rebuild confidence and take bold measures to achieve the economic reforms that would see the country back on its feet again.

This should not have been a terribly difficult task, given the fact that the IMF had bailed the country out to the tune of $17 billion. A massive amount, by any standards. There has of course been an improvement, partly attributable to an export drive helped by a much weaker baht. But in terms of reforms especially regarding debt-ridden companies, non-performing loans, bankruptcies and so on, much remains to be done.

The election has, in effect, been a vote of no confidence in Mr Chuan's failure to grapple with the problems that still hold back the economy. By electing the larger than life Thaksin, they are hoping for a new direction and a way out of the current stagnation. The differences between Chuan and Thaksin are quite interesting. Thaksin is a populist, much like Philippine's Estrada. He led the electorate to believe he could change their fortunes the way he changed his. Thaksin rose from humble beginnings to assemble a $2 billion fortune, making one of the wealthiest people in the world.

Mr Chuan is considered shy but honest. With only $73,000 in declared assets, he is the "poorest" member of his cabinet. He has been probed for possible concealment of his stock portfolio, but subsequently cleared, which makes him clean. As a leader, he is perceived as rather aloof and unable to relate to the ordinary people. His Democrat-led government was like a breath of fresh air when it burst onto the scene with the promise of fighting graft. But now they are seen as insensitive to the plight of the poor who have been hardest hit by the economic slump.

To his credit, Mr Chuan has successfully led the country out of the darkest depths of the crisis, but he has not taken the bold steps necessary to ensure that the crisis does not recur. In fact, economically, Thailand is not out of the woods yet, and some are talking about a potential Thai Crisis 2, with the "Thaitanic" jokes resurfacing. Mr Chuan has also lost credibility for failing to take action against corrupt members of his government.

Mr Thaksin is a political enigma. His two previous stints as deputy premier were lack-lustre. He made grandiose pre-election promises which smack of old-fashioned vote-buying. For example, he promised cheap healthcare at government hospitals, a three year debt moratorium for farmers and $23,000 for each of Thailand's 70,000 villages. Quite how these benevolent acts will be funded is anyone's guess. Market sentiment has been favourable, so far. After the disastrous performance of the Thai stock market which fell 44% last year, the markets registered a 3.2% surge after the election.

Thaksin has made other unrealistic promises in the past. He once promised to solve Bangkok's infamous traffic problems "within six months". He later conceded defeat. This time, as he prepares to form the next government he has pledged to deal with "three enemies": poverty, drugs and corruption. These are noble ideals if he could achieve them. But that is a big IF, for the simple reason that he may not be able to go ahead and form that government. This is for the Constitutional Court to decide.

In the middle of the campaign last year, Mr Thaksin was indicted by the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) for allegedly concealing millions of dollars in assets. It is claimed that when he was a deputy premier, he submitted a false declaration of assets by hiding the said amounts in the names of his maid, driver and security guards to conceal ownership of 17 companies, avoid taxes and manipulate stock prices. He has denied wrong-doing, by arguing that the use of his own money as he pleases does not constitute corruption. If he is found guilty, he could be barred from politics for five years. In a strange twist, the commissioner who led the investigation has recently resigned following allegations that during her Senate confirmations she failed to declare shares she held in a private hospital.

Political observers are painting a gloomy picture for the future of Thailand if Thaksin is found guilty. The expression "headless chicken" has been doing the rounds. It could be some time before a final decision is made, which means that Mr Thaksin may well go ahead and start dealing with his so-called "three enemies." But how much can he achieve with the cloud of conviction hovering above him?

What is likely to undermine him even further in the short term is the questionable company he is said to be planning to keep. It is widely believed that he is planning to strengthen his parliamentary majority by bringing in two other parties into a coalition. Former premiers Chavalit Yongchaiyut's New Aspiration party and Barnharn Silapa-archa's Chart-Thai Party have been cited. Unfortunately both are tainted and will not bring any sense of respectability to any coalition.

Banharn was thrown out of office in 1996 following a vote of no-confidence. Chavalit was forced to resign to take responsibility for the economic crisis. Accusations of bribery and vote-buying have also cast a shadow over the election. Even before the election, the Election Commission disqualified three candidates for trying to buy votes. One recent study estimates that as much as $450 million was spent on bribes and vote-buying. A number of candidates are being investigated and fresh polls have been ordered in some areas.

The fact that the Election Committee and the NCCC appear to have the teeth to bite the high and mighty is testimony to the viability of the new constitution. In 1997 I was privileged to meet with former premier Dr Anand Panyarachun when he helped draft a new constitution that sought, among other things, to introduce a higher degree of accountability in leadership and root out corruption. Listening to him I was amazed to discover how much our two countries share in common, from a deeply entrenched culture of corruption to the gulf between the rich and poor.

Similarly, the two countries are struggling to redefine themselves, to craft a vision that will create a new template for political activity in addition to tackling problems like poverty, disease and ignorance. Later, as my hosts and I sat in the visitors' gallery in the Sapa (parliament) observing the proceedings, I was elated at the experience of observing history in the making but at the same time sad that this was not happening in my own country and from what I could see, would not be happening for a long time to come.

Thailand has gone ahead and adopted a new constitution. Whether the benefits of this achievement have been realised is still too early to tell. The outgoing administration could have done a better job. The recent election, though tainted by the usual vote-buying and violence, has gone some way towards realising a real democracy, helped in large measure by the vigilance of the Election Commission. It now remains to be seen whether Mr Thaksin will pave the way for a new brand of mature democratic leadership for Asia (if allowed to assume the premiership), or whether he will squander his majority by reverting to big-money populism which works well in the short-term but is inevitably doomed.

* Dr Ken Kamoche can be contacted at kendotcom@hongkong.com