In the past few weeks, two events have happened that are likely to reshape the map of the Third World. 

The ruling African National Congress won the South African elections for the third time in a row. Most remarkably, it increased its percentage of the vote without stealing the elections. Twenty-five African heads of state attended President Thabo Mbeki's inauguration, suggesting they too sensed that something significant was unfolding in South Africa. 

India too moved to set itself apart from the struggling world. Nearly 675 million people began voting in four main phases staggered over three weeks, partly to allow the deployment of two million security officers. If you sent that number of police to Botswana, everyone in the country would have an Indian cop to him or herself, and about 250,000 would be left idle. There are one million voting machines. Again, if the election were taking in place in Botswana, all the voters would have got personal machines. 

The elections were all-electronic; the country's first such polls, and the world's largest electronic vote! Considering that the US cannot hold a successful electronic vote in a state, it tells you something about the confidence of the Indians and their technological savvy. 

Because the politics of a country and the way it votes - or doesn't vote - tells you volumes about the character and possibilities of a nation, we have seen strong signs that India and South Africa, the many social and political problems they still face notwithstanding, are beginning to leave behind many of the bad habits of your typical Third World nation. 

Despite high unemployment and over 5 million people with HIV/Aids, the ANC was deservingly rewarded for building 1.6 million new houses for the poor in the past 10 years, and electrifying 70 per cent of the households. In many parts of Africa, the few public houses are grabbed by politicians and ruling party supporters, or are seized and handed to the presidential guard. 

And elections are another opportunity to line the pockets of the ruler's cronies. They are the ones who win the inflated contracts to supply ballot boxes, and print the ballot papers (thus ensuring that at least a consignment is deposited at State House for the president to allocate as he sees fit). In India, this election would have offered one of the largest computer contracts in the world. India's industry, one of the most innovative anywhere, must have profited massively. 

Among the things India and South Africa have in common, is that the ruling parties possess the ability to check the powers of their leader, and are coalitions of varying degrees. Kenya, where there is a raging debate about whether to have a powerful president and a weak prime minister, or an executive prime minister and ceremonial president in the new constitution, might want to learn some lessons there. As should Uganda, which already has a powerful president, but where the ruling Movement is pushing to scrap term limits and create a president for life. 

From this, one is attempted to argue that serious growth today seems to be in countries with layers of political checks on the Big Men. In India and South Africa, apart from the constitutions, there are two sources of such checks. One, a coalition that forces the governments to be cautious. Two, a prime minister or president who needs a parliamentary majority to get the job. He therefore can't use the fact of having been elected on a personal mandate to override his party and appeal directly to the population to extend his term in office. 

If these two checks fail, there is a third - a restless African electorate might sometimes pluck up the courage to throw out the ruling party. Where all three conditions exist, the odds for the survival of democracy are higher, making a country more bankable for business people. Countries where stability depends on the single chance that the strongman might be defeated in elections, die in office, or be benevolent and not steal the vote or change the constitution are simply too risky. 

Charles Onyango-Obbo is managing editor in charge of media convergence at the Nation Media Group. E-mail: cobbo@nation.co.ke 
 

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