AS UGANDA goes to the polls this Monday to elect its next president, donors, mainly from the European Union, say they will exert immediate pressure after the election to have militant Movement cadres brought under control to avoid a continuation of the violence that marred the campaign.

Should incumbent Yoweri Museveni emerge winner, the donors say, they will prevail upon him to reconcile with opposition groups. 

Voting starts at 7am and results are expected 48 hours after the poll closes at 5pm. But the new president will not be sworn in until May 12. There are a contested 11.6 million voters. Opposition groups, observers and donors believe there are in actuality only about 8.6 million voters out of a population of 21.6 million.

European Union donors, who contribute more than $700 million (Ush1.2 trillion) annually to Uganda, were part of a delegation that met President Museveni last week to seek reassurances that his decision to deploy the army, alongside other security agencies, to contain possible election violence would not worsen the situation in which dozens have already been killed.

Some EU countries, including Britain, last week warned their citizens in Uganda of possible violence during polling. "In the run-up to the election, there is a risk that crowds may become violent. Avoid political and other crowded situations and stay away from trouble spots," a statement from the British Foreign Office said on March 5.

President Museveni, contesting against five other candidates, faces the biggest challenge of his career from Col Kizza Besigye. Independent observers said the intimidation of opposition supporters could force a re-run. They also said that the other candidates, Aggrey Awori, Kibirige Mayanja, Chapaa Karuhanga and Francis Bwengye, would poll less than five per cent between them.

In the event that none of the candidates gets above 50 per cent of the vote, a run-off will be held between the two top candidates. Observers say Col Besigye could gain the upper hand in a re-run as most of the other candidates would throw their weight behind him.

The EastAfrican has learnt that the Electoral Commission has started preparing for a re-run and has drawn up a budget of not less than Ush6 billion ($3.5million) for the exercise. The head of the legal and public relations desk at the Commission, Ms Alexandria Nkonge, would not comment on the figure but confirmed they were preparing for a re-run.

"It is prudent for the Commission to prepare for a re-run. As to whether the money is there, it is a matter for the Treasury. We have told the people to keep their voting cards for a possible re-run, which we have to arrange within 30 days," she said.

US States Department officials in Washington however told The EastAfrican, that US would only comment after the elections, adding there was no review underway of US policy toward Uganda. Said an official: "Nothing like that will happen until a new Assistant Secretary of State for Africa is appointed, and that probably won't happen for another week or two."

Ms Binaifer Nowrojee, author of a Human Rights Watch report released last week, which criticised the conduct of the campaign, said in a separate interview that campaign violence has not decreased since their report.

"It doesn't seem to me that there's been much improvement. The elections won't be free and fair even if the violence and intimidation were to stop right now. A climate of fear has been created. The legal framework strongly favours the incumbent, as can be seen from the inflated voter rolls," Ms Nowrojee said. 

She added: "This is a very critical turning point in Uganda's history. In the last elections, many people were willing to give Museveni the benefit of the doubt. But not any more. If Museveni wins under the present circumstances, he would be living on borrowed time." 

Since the publication of its report, Ms Nowrojee said, Human Rights Watch has received many inquiries from donor country governments regarding the situation in Uganda. "The European Union countries have expressed particular concern. Their embassies in Kampala have now agreed to suspend their other activities to concentrate on election monitoring. In addition, the EU will be issuing statements in the run-up to the vote and in its aftermath, speaking as a single entity rather than as individual European states," Ms Nowrojee said. 

President Museveni's deployment of the army in major towns including the capital, Kampala, and the army's harassment of opposition supporters, have raised fears that the military will resist the verdict of the people if it is not in favour of its commanders.

Dr Besigye told The EastAfrican that he would only accept the outcome of the polls if he was satisfied with the way the exercise was conducted. He said the deployment of the army had compromised the election.

Last Thursday, Besigye, Awori, Karuhanga and Mayanja threatened to quit the election if the government did not withdraw the army from the exercise. 

President Museveni named Army Commander Maj Gen Jeje Odongo as head of the security committee to oversee the election, and his deputy, Brig Ivan Koreta, the director of the Internal Security Organisation. Military men have been deployed in several towns, while Military Police personnel have been withdrawn from upcountry and deployed in Kampala where the army says it expects most violence.

For more than a month, the Presidential Protection Unit has been deployed in Besigye's home district of Rukungiri. Just over a week ago, one person was killed and a dozen others injured during clashes between the PPU personnel and Besigye's supporters.

Election observers who arrived in the country last week predicted violent clashes between supporters of President Museveni and Mr Besigye if security were not tightened. Mr Museveni last Thursday threatened to "crush" whoever caused violence.

Propaganda campaigns launched by the rival camps could worsen election violence. The Museveni team has been accused by its rivals, as well as by election monitoring groups, of engaging in an immoral smear campaign against the other candidates. 

The Museveni team booked 460 commercial spots on Radio Simba at Ush6.9 million ($4,000), 500 spots on Capital FM at Ush9.5 million ($5,400), 300 spots on Radio One at Ushs10 million ($5,700), and spots worth Ush11 million on CBS Radio ($6,300). Dr Besigye booked 70 spots on Radio Simba and spots worth Ush3.5 million ($200) on CBS. Analysts said the content of Museveni's spots maligned the other candidates.

*Reported by Erich Ogoso Opolot, Wairagala Wakabi in Kampala and Kevin J. Kelley in Washington.