It used to look like Mr Paul Muite would hold on to the Kabete parliamentary sat for as long as he lived. Now, as he looks to win a third straight term, the multi-party campaign pioneer has reason to look over his shoulder. 

In the larger Kiambu district, there is the Uhuru Kenyatta presidential candidacy that has suddenly turned Kanu into a serious contender. Kabete has been hit by a surfeit of contenders for the Kanu ticket who could give Mr Muite a run for his money. 

It does not help that Mr Muite has not quite thrown in his lot with the opposition grouping, the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), best placed to resist Kanu's advances in Central Kenya. NARC is also attracting many serious opposition candidates who in other circumstances would not even have bothered to challenge Mr Muite.

Then, in Kabete, there is the Njonjo factor. Former attorney-general Charles Njonjo has been a kingmaker in Kabete, both before and after his short reign as the area MP between 1980 and 1983. 

Mr Njonjo's support was seen as crucial to Mr Muite's 1992 and 1997 landslide victories, but as a key backroom advisor to the Uhuru Kenyatta campaign, he is throwing his considerable clout behind a Kanu candidate. 

Njonjo's man this time seems to be debutante Lewis Nguyai, who is a son of former Kabete MP, the late Amos Ng'ang'a. It was Mr Ng'ang'a who, in 1980, resigned "for a consideration" to allow Mr Njonjo's unopposed entry into Parliament at the ensuing by-election. 

Mr Nguyai, 38, co-founder of leading local health insurance provider Mediplus Limited, also seems to be the preferred candidate of the Kenyatta campaign machinery, which gives him a head start over the other Kanu hopefuls. He has already plastered the constituency with campaign posters featuring him alongside Mr Kenyatta. 

Other contenders for the Kanu ticket include veteran Kabete politician Njung'e Mukirae, Nairobi businessman Ndung'u Gachoka, former Nairobi Town Clerk Johnson Mbugua and local Kanu activist Anthony Njehu.

The perception that Mr Nguyai has the backing of the system has its downside. He is a newcomer, and veteran Kanu leaders in the area complain loudly that they are being shut out. A former Treasury Permanent Secretary, Dr Kang'ethe Gitu, initially seemed to be the front-runner for the Kanu ticket. Until he suddenly went quiet some four months ago. He declined to respond to queries on thether he had withdrawn. All he would say is: "You tell Mr Nguyai to continue with the Project," a reference to the Kanu presidential nominee. 

A former Kabete Kanu chairman Milton Njoroge, who was among the Kiambu district delegates shut out of Kasarani stadium during the March 18 conference, is said to be weighing his options. 

Already, the seismic shifts in Kanu since then are being seen on the ground. Mr Njoroge is under pressure to move to NARC, via the Liberal Democratic Party, where he would join his long-time friends, former Kanu secretary-general Joseph Kamotho and former Vice-President George Saitoti.

Other NARC contenders include veteran former MP Joseph Gatuguta, Nairobi lawyer George Wakahiu, a former school teacher Newton Njenga, journalist Ngugi wa Mbugua and businessman and political commentator Kiriro wa Ngugi. 

Also out for the same ticket is a former Muite campaigner Kariba Muniu, while an engineer Cecil Mungai and a former director of the Nairobi City Council Inspectorate Samuel Kigathi are yet to make their tickets clear. It is not clear on which party ticket the would seek nomination. 

Despite all the weighty arsenal directed at him, Mr Muite should still start as the favourite. The Safina party leader made a deft move a fortnight ago when he declared that he would support the NARC presidential candidate, Mr Mwai Kibaki, even though his party remained a member of the Kenya People's Coalition backing Mr Simeon Nyachae. 

The signs point to a close three-way race pitting Muite against the Kanu and NARC candidates. 

At the crowded NARC and KANU nominations, there is bound to be intense fallout, which would change the scenario somewhat.