To the people of Keiyo District, he is simply Karnet – unbreakable, durable, hard as nails. 

To everybody else, he is the self-declared Total Man, the omnipresent, calculating, even ruthless, man of power in the Moi regime. 

Now, with President Moi set for his final bow, questions will invariably be asked about the fate of figures like Kipyator Nicholas Kiprono Biwott. 

He has been such an enduring presence throughout the Moi era that many have been tempted to presume that there would be little choice but for the two to ride into the sunset side by side.

Indeed, in the past year or so there have been unmistakeable signs that Mr Biwott has been losing the near-total supremacy he wielded in the Moi court.

With recent developments related to the presidential succession puzzle, particularly the Kanu-NDP merger and the scripted emergence of the so-called Young Turks in Kanu, Mr Biwott seemed history.

But those who understand his capacity for bouncing back and his entrenched role as the one person President Moi turns back to in times of indecision or crisis were not surprised by the subsequent turn of events.

Over last Christmas, the presidential entourage in Mombasa was in a quandary. President Moi was getting increasingly frustrated that the Kanu-NDP merger seemed to be going off the rails. A series of strategy sessions with the key emerging players, including his powerful son Gideon, assistant minister William Ruto, ministers Musalia Mudavadi, Julius Sunkuli and Uhuru Kenyatta; and erstwhile NDP leader Raila Odinga, were yielding little.

Part of the impasse had to do with not just working out the final details of the merger, but also on how to counter strong forces in Kanu grouped around Vice-President George Saitoti, who was fearful of losing out.

In Mombasa, a group including Gideon, Ruto, Odinga and Kenyatta convinced the President to appoint a four-man team to work out the intricacies of the merger. The task-force was supposedly to operate independently of Kanu headquarters which, under then secretary-general Joseph Kamotho, was deemed capable of throwing plenty of spanners into the works. 

Once back in Nairobi, however, the President called a Kanu executive committee meeting, which established a 17-strong team to also oversee the merger. The team headed by veteran assistant vice-chairman Njoroge Mungai was dominated by establishment types and was seen as a major victory of the old guard over the Young Turks.

It was also a classic Biwott manoeuvre. As details were being worked out leading to the March 18 delegates' conference, it was becoming clear that Kanu was in disarray. 

The Gideon-Ruto axis was coming out with a slate of candidates in which Biwott's name did not feature. There were also clear attempts to undermine (apart from Prof Saitoti who was already clearly out of the loop) at least two key claimants to the presidential succession – Mr Mudavadi of Western Province and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka of Ukambani. 

From Western, cabinet newcomer Cyrus Jirongo was supported in his aggressive bid to beat Mr Mudavadi to the Western slot for one of the Kanu vice chairmanships. And from Ukambani, the leader of the Party of Independent Candidates of Kenya, Mr John Harun Mwau, was subtly encouraged to similarly take the battle to Mr Musyoka. 

With the Saitoti forces also preparing for a last stand, it appeared Kanu was headed for a divisive conference, until Mr Biwott deftly stepped into the picture.

Initially, he was not even on the ticket. When President Moi met a large group of Rift Valley MPs to approve their slate of candidates, conspicuous absentees on the list were Prof Saitoti, who was not even invited to the parley, and Mr Biwott. It was at that meeting that Mr Biwott pushed his case for inclusion, and was finally given the slot of national organising secretary, which was initially meant for Mr Sunkuli.

From then on he went into overdrive whipping various Kanu camps into line, playing a large role on persuading Mr Jirongo and quite a few others to stand down. 

In fact he is credited with having saved the day for Kanu by turning the election into a straight selection as is the norm, but some of the Young Turks were left grumbling that he seemed to have taken charge. 

Their concern was that it would be difficult to sell the idea of a new, untainted Kanu as long as the likes of Mr Biwott were still occupying the front row. 

The fact is that they had been outsmarted, and even now while all the fervour is on the possible ascent of a Young Turk to succeed President Moi – Mr Kenyatta is candidate of the moment – one can be certain that the likes of Mr Biwott might be having their own scripts.

For starters, Mr Biwott would be doubly sure of retaining his Keiyo South parliamentary seat. The same cannot be said of the emerging players who seem to be running the show at the moment. 

Secondly, the Kalenjin masses still see Mr Biwott, more than ever with the passage of time, as the dependable and strong figure, who will safeguard their interests in the post-Moi era. 

But what role will he play? Mr Biwott will not be a candidate for president. Beside the reality of Kenyan politics that Kanu cannot nominate another Kalenjin to succeed President Moi, there is also the detail that one has to be electable; and Mr Biwott is probably more feared than loved. 

But he will certainly want to play a powerful role behind the scenes. There have been suggestions that Mr Biwott might in fact gun for the envisaged post of prime minister, but there would be many others eyeing the seat, including Mr Odinga, who might see it as his natural reward if Kanu will not nominate him for president. 

For Mr Biwott, however, his modus operandi is never to show his hand. For the Kanu Young Turks gallivanting across the country and revelling in their role as the new power brokers, Mr Biwott might as well not exist. 

They made that assumption once, and watched him take up position as the senior Rift Valley Kanu official apart from the President. 

The fact is that Kanu is still a long way form resolving the Moi succession dilemma. The longer it takes to resolve the matter, the more it suits Mr Biwott. 

Another crisis might arise when Kanu is hit by the realisation that it has left it too late to identify and market the "chosen one." Mr Biwott is in his element when it comes to his role as President Moi's most reliable crisis manager.