The so-called marginal regions in the Coast, North Eastern, Eastern and Rift Valley provinces, with an estimated 1.5 million voters, could provide the swing vote that will determine the winner of the December 27 poll, deemed the greatest challenge yet to Kanu's 40-year hold on Kenyan politics.

The opposition, which has in the past two multiparty elections lost vital votes in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) areas looks set to benefit from President Daniel arap Moi's retirement. The "marginalised" communities in Kenya's drylands looked up to the president for protection.

"We realise the election will be won or lost here because voters in Central, Western, Nairobi and Nyanza have taken decisively partisan positions," a strategist with one of the leading parties said.

The areas will be important to Kanu now since the 2.5 million voters from Mt Kenya region initially thought of as the ruling party's for the taking are likely to be shared with the National Rainbow Coalition led by Mwai Kibaki. 

These regions with a total of 48 seats, often act as a major buffer zone for Kanu's national tally and include Garissa, Ijara, Wajir and Mandera in the banditry-prone North Eastern province; Moyale, Marsabit and Isiolo (Eastern); Tana River and Lamu (Coast); Mt Elgon (Western), West Pokot Turkana, Marakwet, Samburu, Narok, Trans-Mara, Kajiado and fringes of President Moi's Baringo district in Rift Valley province. 

Some parts of Mwingi and Kitui districts in Eastern province and Kuria district in Nyanza, do not fall in the pastoral areas, but are considered marginalised and therefore rich fishing grounds for votes. With Moi out of the contest, former Cabinet Minister William ole Ntimama – who recently defected to the opposition – sees Kanu losing ground in the so-called "Kanu Zones."

"For the past 40 years, we have been enslaved by being consistently told that Kanu is mama na baba. But what do we have to show for it in terms of basic infrastructure?" lamented Ntimama, who said that he had been instrumental in blocking opposition inroads into Maasailand.

However, just as was the case in 1992 and 1997, the opposition will have to improve its networking if it is keen on winning votes in regions such as North Eastern, Tana River and North Rift – areas prone to banditry and cattle rustling.

Cross-border attacks are common and it is difficult to bring them under control because of lack of physical infrastructure and low literacy rates. The opposition believes Kanu has held these areas to ransom by failing to provide security and facilities like roads, which would open up the enclaves to other Kenyans. The opposition also accuses Kanu of using the provincial administration to intimidate the electorate to vote for Kanu.

"Kanu won these areas, not because it enjoyed massive support, but because the financially strapped opposition was limited to urban areas, where there was ease of communication," Abdulkadir Araru, the co-ordinator of the Kenya Pastoralist Journalists Alliance said.

Kanu leaders in the region appreciate this reality.

"The perception that Kanu has something tangible to offer unlike the opposition's 'vapour' has worked well for the party," outgoing Kacheliba MP Samuel Poghisio said.

Although the regions would remain for Kanu irrespective of the ongoing political re-alignments, Poghisio said, the party can no longer afford to be complacent.

The region has been trying to support itself through non-governmental organisations, which Kanu invariably views as opposition-engineered efforts. 

In 1999, security agents acted swiftly to disable the Pastoralists Parliamentary Group that had a membership of over 40 Members of Parliament from the ASALs, which had come together to articulate common issues. North Eastern province, in particular, has historically been Kenya's political and economic backwater, probably due to the shifta cessation war of the 1960s. 

Leaders from the province, with its 223,095 registered voters, are leaning more towards Uhuru in a move those from the region argue is buoyed by the perception that the government has never forgiven them for their willingness to secede to neighbouring Somalia in the 1962 referendum.

Selective appointments by President Moi of the region's leaders to top government, civil service, parastatals and military positions have turned out to be loyalty rewards that leave the region's physical and human conditions unchanged. 

In the past two elections, Kanu bagged nine out of the 11 parliamentary seats in the province, losing the other two to one opposition party – Paul Muite's Safina – due to a bungled nomination exercise. 

The North Rift, on the other hand, is still reeling from the colonial legacy that administratively and economically alienated it from the rest of Kenya.

A recent study by British aid agency – Oxfam – concluded that decades of top-down initiatives have failed to integrate the ASALs into the national economy.

Literacy rates stand at 20 per cent compared with national average of 69 per cent; one doctor per 1,000 people as opposed to 15 per 1,000 nationally.

"Kenyans will one day realise the folly of neglecting an important sector of the economy that can earn this country substantial revenue," lamented Poghisio.

An issue close to the region is the revival of the Kenya Meat Commission (KMC), which collapsed in 1993 to support the pastoral economy. 

Opposition members are now optimistic that after taking the battle to Kanu in Mwingi and Kitui districts in Eastern through Kalonzo Musyoka and Charity Ngilu, it is just a matter of time before they gain inroads into North Rift, North Eastern and Coast provinces. 

NARC is expected to gain considerably in Maasailand, a former Kanu domain, which has lately experienced opposition activities courtesy of Ntimama and former vice-president, George Saitoti, whose influence is likely to spread to Trans Mara, leaving Samburu an untouched Kanu enclave.

The Turkana have had greater interaction with outside communities courtesy of Lokichogio airstrip, a main route to southern Sudan and a hub of relief operations. As a result, the opposition Ford-Kenya managed to secure the Turkana North seat in the last elections.

Another potential entry point for the opposition, is Marakwet district, where the former MP for Marakwet East, the late Fredrick Cheserek, made a good account of himself on a DP ticket. The Marakwet accuse the government of letting Pokot cattle rustlers ran roughshod over them. 

However, opposition hopes would remain just that if Kanu were to employ its alleged rigging methods in the regions.

Despite the low literacy rates, the regions register the highest voter turn out of over 80 per cent compared to a national average of 52 per cent.

Also curious, but usually explained by the remoteness, is that returns from those regions, are usually among the last to be announced, swaying the balance in favour of Kanu candidates where opposition candidates appear likely to surmount the odds.

A Maasai woman votes during a by-election in 1984 in Kajiado South constituency. Prof George Saitoti represented the constituency, in Kenya's drylands in the last parliament