Monday, April 22,
2002
Kenya's polls 'rigged' by flawed boundaries
By ROBERT ODUOL
The number of seats won by
the political parties in Kenya's National Assembly would be significantly
different if the existing constituencies were to be redrawn into geographical
units with equal populations.
Research conducted by a leading
American political scientist, Prof Joel Barkan, shows that had this been
done for the 1997 polls, the ruling party, Kanu, which received only 41
per cent of the total votes cast but took 51 per cent of the seats in parliament,
would have had four seats less.
The official opposition,
the Democratic Party, which got 39 seats, would have ended up with 41 seats
in parliament, while the defunct National Development Party, which took
21 seats, would have received 24.
Ford Kenya, which took 17
seats, would have ended up with a similar number of seats, as would have
the Social Democratic Party, which took 15 seats.
Safina, which won five seats,
would have ended up with only three seats in the new scenario. The other
minor parliamentary parties, which shared six seats between them, would
have ended up with an extra seat.
There have been calls in
the past to redraw Kenya's current 210 constituencies to reflect equal
population sizes.
Critics say the current system
has tended to favour the sparsely populated areas, where Kanu enjoys greater
support, over the more densely populated areas like Nairobi, Central and
Nyanza provinces, where the opposition enjoys more support.
Both Kanu and the opposition
agreed that a new electoral system that would reverse the trend witnessed
during both the 1992 and 1997 multiparty polls is needed, although none
of these have detailed the precise scenario they would prefer.
Kanu's secretary of legal
and constitutional affairs, Mr Otieno Kajwang', said last week that the
party was pushing for radical changes in the country's electoral system
which if adopted, would introduce proportional representation (PR) in the
country's parliament alongside the current constituency-based one.
This, he said, was one of
the proposals the party intended to forward to the Constitution of Kenya
Review Commission (CKRC).
The CKRC, which has been
in existence since September 2000, is mandated under the Constitution of
Kenya Review Act to provide a comprehensive review of the current constitution.
"This is one of the proposals
in our party's position paper that we intend to forward to the CKRC once
it is ratified by our national executive committee," Mr Kajwang' said,
adding that the party felt strongly that a "mixed electoral system" would
redress some of the limitations of the existing electoral system.
"The constituency-based electoral
system," Mr Kajwang' said, "was one of the factors that had, in the first
instance, brought about the urge for a constitutional review in the country
because of what many felt were inherent deficiencies of that system."
Mr Kajwang' chairs the Kanu
sub-committee which was recently appointed to work out the party's position
on the current constitution review.
The committee also includes
Cabinet ministers Nicholas Biwott, Bonaya Godana, Julius Sunkuli and assistant
ministers William Ruto and Joseph Kiangoi. Party secretary general Raila
Odinga is an ex-officio member.
Legal and political experts
in Kenya have in recent years called for a shift from the current constituency-based
electoral system on the grounds that it gave Kanu undue advantage over
the other parties.
They say this advantage was
institutionalised by the British colonial government, which drew up independent
Kenya's first constituencies.
Critics of the constituency-based
electoral system say the system tends to ensure that the larger parties
tend to get a much larger proportion of the seats in parliament than the
proportion of votes obtained at elections.
Prof Njuguna Ng'ethe a political
scientist at the University of Nairobi's Institute of Development Studies
says this was why Kanu won 107 seats in Kenya's 210-member parliament after
the December 1997 elections even though the party only won 41 per cent
of the total votes cast.
Prof Ng'ethe says that even
the nomination of 12 other members of parliament by various political parties
did not quite resolve the problem.
"It simply reproduced the
same scenario that existed in parliament as the nominations were based
on the number of seats each party had in parliament," he said.
Had the nominations been
based on the number of popular votes, the allocations of seats to nominated
Members of Parliament would have been different and Kanu with only 41 per
cent of the votes would have got five seats instead of the six it took.
The latest move by both Kanu
and the opposition is being viewed as a step towards addressing the issue
which has not been given much thought in the past.
"The choice of electoral
systems has never been systematically discussed in most of the emerging
democracies with the exception of South Africa," says University of Iowa's
Prof Barkan.
"Yet," he notes, "it is electoral
systems that determine election outcomes and affect the composition of
the legislatures of various countries."
"What we have often had,
according to him, has been a continuation of systems bequeathed by the
former colonial powers.
In English-speaking countries
the British system was adopted while the same happened in French-speaking
countries.
Prof Barkan who has written
widely on the politics of eastern Africa, is the author of Politics
and Public Policy in Kenya and Tanzania and Beyond Capitalism versus
Socialism in Kenya and Tanzania, a comparative analysis of the transition
to multi-partism and the early economic reform efforts in the two countries.
Prof Barkan has done a series
of simulations of different alternatives on his website www.uiowa.edu/~electdis
which present different scenarios with different electoral systems.