Election 2002 
Sunday, December 8, 2002 

With 19 days to the poll, the battle for Nyanza Province's 1.56 million votes gains momentum, with each of the main presidential aspirants hoping to clinch the crucial 25 per cent slice. Narc presidential candidate Mwai Kibaki, Ford People's Simeon Nyachae, SDP's James Orengo and Kanu's Uhuru Kenyatta are jostling for any advantage amid claims of vote buying.

But it is for Mr Nyachae and Mr Orengo that the Nyanza vote really counts since it is their home turf. Ford People counts on the Kisii while SDP looks to the Luo for bedrock support in their presidential bids. If Mr Nyachae and Mr Orengo don't garner the critical 25 per cent vote in Nyanza, it is doubtful they will make much impact in the national tally.

Mr Nyachae is from Kisii, Mr Orengo from Siaya, Mr Kibaki from Nyeri and Mr Kenyatta from Thika.

However, Narc boasts a headstart in Nyanza – thanks to the goodwill cultivated through the Rainbow rebellion in Kanu by Raila Odinga and his clique that fell out with President Moi over the choice of the ruling party's presidential flagbearer.

Responding to a claim that Mr Nyachae has done little to woo votes in the Kisumu area, his running mate Kipkalia Kones said the Ford-People presidential candidate is soon to launch his campaigns in Luo Nyanza.

In an interview with the Sunday Nation, Mr Kones said: "Those complaining we have not gone to Nyanza Province should hold their horses. The province is on our programme. It is only a matter of days before we make an extensive tour of Nyanza.'' 

He added: "We have not gone everywhere. Even other presidential candidates have not covered every corner of the country.'' 

Mr Kones read "sinister motives in such a claim. Who are the people complaining? Do they want to change our campaign programme? I think there is a sinister motive.'' 

Kanu's Uhuru Kenyatta is being treated as an underdog in the province but no one is in a hurry to write him off. Pundits argue he could reap a good harvest from the subtle splits and rifts among the Narc leadership and from the divide between Narc on the one hand and the presidential hopefuls from Nyanza (Mr Nyachae and Mr Orengo) on the other.

Observers have said the disaffected from Narc's rank and file, especially those who were not well treated during the party nominations, may lend their support to the opposing presidential aspirants, even for spite's sake.

Narc is shuffling behind the scenes in a campaign to bring the disaffected, including some of the immediate former MPs, back to the fold.

In some of the constituencies, losers in Narc nominations who defected to Mr Orengo's Social Democratic Party are vigorously campaigning against Narc torchbearer Kibaki.

But former Nyakach MP Peter Odoyo is confident the dissenting voices will die down ahead of December 27, and predicts Mr Kibaki will get 60 per cent of the vote in Nyanza.

"By the time we go to the poll on December 27, nobody will remember what happened at the nominations five weeks ago. Seven days into the new government, everybody will have embraced the Narc leadership," says Mr Odoyo.

In politics, he says, people tend to forget the past quickly and focus into the future. 

"The public forget quickly. What is coming is of greater value to them. Narc stands for change and those yearning for it will vote for Mr Kibaki. This is why we are confident of getting a huge percentage in Nyanza," he adds.

The former assistant minister for Foreign Affairs says Mr Nyachae will garner at least 25 per cent of the Nyanza vote "largely because of the Kisii support. Mr Orengo may not get anything more than 15 per cent but he will get at least two parliamentary seats in Luo-Nyanza".

Mr Odoyo says Narc faces stiff competition in 100 constituencies countrywide – five of them in Nyanza where Ford-P, Kanu and SDP have fielded strong candidates. "In Nyanza we are keenly watching Ugenya, Gem, Rarieda, Muhoroni and Kuria. In these constituencies, we have to work extra hard to deliver." 

Mr Orengo's top presidential campaigner Joe Donde disagrees with Mr Odoyo. He says the SDP is sure of bagging at least 25 per cent of the presidential vote in Nyanza. "Mr Orengo has made serious inroads into most parts of the country and I am surprised at the overwhelming support he has captured. Getting the 25 per cent in Nyanza will not be a problem at all." 

He adds: "We have eventually captured territories earlier presumed no-go zones for us. We have fielded very strong and respected candidates in most of the constituencies. We are making gains nobody ever dreamt of. In Kisii, we are sure of substantial votes; we have strong candidates and are happy with their performance."

Kanu stalwarts in Nyanza are exuding confidence even as Opposition supporters dismiss presidential candidate Kenyatta as inconsequential.

Assistant Minister Shadrack Manga, whose supporters demonstrated against the ruling party after he failed to win the ticket to defend his Kuria seat, is predicting victory for Mr Kenyatta.

"Some people plotted to rob me of the seat. Kanu may not be sure of the parliamentary seat but the Kuria will no doubt support Mr Kenyatta to the last man," said Mr Manga, who is Kanu's Nyanza NEC representative.

Mr Manga's supporters rioted after Kanu gave Nairobi businessman John Mugaywa the ticket to contest Kuria following a chaotic nomination process.

The assistant minister for Energy was said to have lost the nomination and was swiftly handed a direct nomination by Kanu headquarters, a decision that was later rescinded.

He said he was not bitter with the ruling party and pledged to help Mr Kenyatta win at least 25 per cent of the vote in Nyanza. "It is difficult to predict but I think Mr Kenyatta will get slightly over 25 per cent. He is already sure of at least 90 per cent of votes from Kuria".

Kanu deputy secretary-general Dalmas Otieno, who leads the party's presidential campaign in Nyanza, is keeping his cards close to his chest but was all the same confident Kanu will get nothing less than 25 per cent in Nyanza. "We are on the campaign trail. Kanu has deep roots in Nyanza and we shall deliver," said Mr Otieno.

Siaya Kanu branch chairman Joel Nyaseme and Rarieda Kanu parliamentary aspirant James Ondiek Songa said the hostility earlier exhibited against Mr Kenyatta had dissipated and predicted a big harvest for the Kanu candidate.

Said Mr Songa: "Kanu has been well received in Nyanza. The fallout in Narc has boosted our camp. Mr Kenyatta is likely to get his 25 per cent share of the vote. We are expecting a number of parliamentary seats from Nyanza because the candidates are being rated on individual strength and not party lines."

Kisumu Kanu branch chairman Sam Nyakado said: "Kanu is no longer an underdog. Mr Kenyatta is becoming increasingly popular in the province".

But a row over the ruling party's failure to fund its civic candidates may cause trouble for Mr Kenyatta. Civic candidates in Nyanza are asking why only the parliamentary aspirants are being given money for the campaigns. "Kanu civic aspirants are not happy. They are the people on the ground who can make or break Mr Kenyatta," one civic aspirant said.

In 1997, President Moi bagged 20 per cent of the Nyanza vote when a majority abandoned Kanu to support Mr Odinga, the sole presidential candidate from the region at that time. 

If Mr Nyachae and Mr Orengo lose out in Nyanza, their chances of winning anywhere else will be remote. Mr Odinga, on the other hand, wants to be seen to be able to deliver Nyanza to Mr Kibaki.

Central Province is a two-horse race between Mr Kibaki and Mr Kenyatta but Nyanza is considered an open battlefield.

Mr Nyachae's campaign revolves around the three Abagusii districts of Kisii, Nyamira and Gucha, with a total of 515,650 votes.

Cabinet ministers Sam Ongeri (Nyaribari Masaba) and Chris Obure (Bobasi) are under intense pressure to deliver not only their seats but to top up Mr Kenyatta's basket. 

But former North Mugirango MP James Omingo Magara sees Mr Nyachae and Mr Orengo beating Mr Kibaki hands down in Nyanza. "Luos are still bitter with what Mzee Kenyatta did (to sideline) Jaramogi Odinga. They are not comfortable with a Kikuyu President and this will cost Mr Kibaki many votes".

Mr Magara said that although Mr Odinga commands a massive following in Luo-Nyanza, he may find it tricky marketing Mr Kibaki.

Mr Orengo hit the campaign trail in Kisii last week. Benefiting from a fallout over Ford-P nominations, he has harvested two key figures – former Bomachoge MP Zephania Nyangwara and University lecturer Tumbo Oeri.

"Following the acrimony and rigging that marred Ford-People nominations, many Kisiis now believe that any party can produce a competent President, including Mr Orengo who has fought gallantly against Kanu," said Mr Nyangwara.

Mr Kibaki may benefit from a sympathy vote following the road accident in which he was injured during his campaigns in Ukambani last week.

The poll debate has been so intense in Kisumu that two people had to be rescued from a mob after they rated Mr Kibaki's potential votes at a paltry 20 per cent last week. Moses Ooko and Jotham Mbori, both Kanu supporters, had told a "people's parliament" gathered at a shop veranda that not many Luo or Kisii would vote for Mr Kibaki as the two communities had their sons in the big race. The duo was attacked with kicks and blows by Narc diehards.

A former Maseno University student leader, Mr Joshua Nyamori, says Mr Kibaki could attain the 25 per cent vote in Nyanza "but Mr Kenyatta and Mr Orengo are the candidates to watch".

"Mr Kenyatta is being underrated but I am afraid he may pull a surprise. This is because Narc's hysterical support has been demystified by the chaotic nominations. To many people Narc is just as bad as Kanu," Mr Nyamori said.

He added: "Narc started celebrating before it won. It has lost the campaign steam and this has given ample room for the parties despised earlier to move ahead." He said Dalmas Otieno in Rongo, Odongo Omamo (Kanu, Bondo), Onyango K'Oyoo (SDP, Muhoroni), Moses Owiti (SDP, Rarieda), Ouma Muga (Ford-P, Rangwe), and Orao Obura (SDP-Kisumu Town East) were the men to watch.

But former Ndhiwa MP Joshua Ojodeh, who is defending his seat on a Narc ticket, is ready to bet any amount on Mr Kibaki's victory. "There is no point arguing over it. Narc is poised for a landslide countrywide. I pity those people still doubting this. With Mr Odinga and his strong colleagues at the helm, we are sure of victory."

While agreeing with Mr Ojodeh on the point of a Kibaki win, a Kanu pointman in Kisumu, Mr Reginald Mbeka, says Mr Kenyatta is likely to spring a surprise and bag at least 25 per cent in the province.

"Those underrating Kanu will be surprised. We shall win the presidential votes in many constituencies," says Mr Mbeka, a sports administrator who led President Moi's campaigns in Kisumu in 1997.

Mr Ibrahim Siekei, a Ford-People diehard, says that "Mr Nyachae could get the highest number of votes in Nyanza if he organises his campaign well. He is losing many potential voters because he is not accessible to many of his supporters, such as me. I am the party's coordinator for Kisumu, Siaya, Kisumu Rural and Bondo but I have not had a chance to brief him."

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