Election 2002 
Sunday, December 8, 2002 

If we are to believe the promises leaders are giving us during this campaign period, then Kenya will be a much better place next year, says ROBERT SHAW

And if we are to believe, or give the benefit of the doubt to, just a fraction of these promises then Kenya is going to be a much better place come next year. It is fair to hope for a happier Kenya and it is also realistic to expect a country where its citizens will have a greater opportunity to carve out their own destiny. 

But Kenyans should also be realistic about what change we want and what change we can effect and in what time frame. If our aspiring leaders get carried away into fantasyland with their promises of sweetness and light for all we should ask them the simple question: How are you going to do this or that? 

There is nothing wrong with having a vision of a better future. Indeed it is the foundation for any aspirations and ambitions we may have. In that regard many of our future leaders have made a promising start particularly when it comes to realising the urgent attention our economy needs. But beyond that we need to inject a large dose of soberness and realism into the equation. Some promisesare easily attainable.

Before breaking down those promises further there are some other important ingredients to put into reality equation. One is the question as to whether we will have a political combination that will foster, and indeed propel, the sort of changes we hope for and need. One common fear is that post-election political in-fighting and intrigue, especially within some of the loose alliances that have sprung up, could impede decisive action and good management of the country and its economy. 

Another practical concern is that if we are lucky in that political combination there is the question of capacity. A good topical example is the run up to the recent tragedies at the coast. How capable are the arms and legs of government when it comes to basic security issues? Conversely we could ask how inept and corrupt government is and what and how long would it take to change that?

Let us get back to those promises and sieve them. Where the key factor is largely dependent on political will alone, delivery will be easier. For example completing the constitutional reform process, passing the anti-corruption and a code of ethics legislation and opening up of the airwaves are good examples of what is possible quite quickly and easily. Putting professional management into a number of key areas and entering into investment and technology partnerships are others. Telkom Kenya Ltd and Kenya Railways are two obvious candidates.

Then there is a whole batch of promises that are both costly and longer term. Infrastructure is the obvious one. To get our roads to a maintainable level only would cost over Sh80 billion and a number of years. I say "only" because we are not necessarily talking about grand schemes for super highways and so on. To get the cost of our electricity down would require some major changes in our energy production. Unfortunately we have become more and more dependent on the more expensive fuel-based energy production. The catch 22 is that poor infrastructure is one of the major causes for our agricultural and manufactured products being expensive and hence uncompetitive. Another is restructuring our budget so that we spend less on servicing debt and salaries and wages and more on goods and services. At present, the first two account for over two thirds of our budget. 

Economists are quick to point out that there are computer models available that can help to pinpoint what needs doing and where in order to spur economic growth. But that alone is not enough. One needs to map out a reconstruction strategy that fully takes on board the various practical issues: the human element!

But the most dangerous, and for me the most worrying, promises are ones that run against any commercial or economic logic and hence would dislocate the economy. They are the opposite of what Mr Mwai Kibaki termed many years ago as the "hard options". Let me give a couple of the most common examples. One is the promise to maize farmers that producer prices will be raised to Sh1,500 after the election. They are currently in the Sh800 to Sh1,050 band. Another is the promise to sugar cane growers to reverse the proposal to reduce the sugar cane price from over Sh2,000 per tonne by around 25 per cent.

The other side of the equation to that is that you are telling the majority of Kenyans that they should pay much more for their maize and sugar and indeed a host of other products where promises to farmers have been made. To put it more bluntly you are telling Kenyans that they should pay Sh50 or more for a two-kilo packet of maize meal!

The simple fact is that costs of production of a number of our agricultural products are too high: maize and sugar included. Virtually every other major producing country in the world can produce them cheaper than us. 

In the case of sugar cane, the price has remained the same whilst the consumer price has gone down by around a third. It therefore accounts for 65 per cent to 75 per cent of total sugar sales revenues when the industry norm is 50 per cent. The outcome is clear. Assuming government will not, and indeed cannot, subsidise the price, Kenya’s remaining sugar factories will go bust within a year if that percentage does not come down.

Of course there is some middle ground where a compromise can be reached but cheap promises on the back of populist politics has often ruled that out.

When Raila Odinga goes through the leafy suburbs of Karen in his effort to retain the Langata constituency seat I suggest he stops off at BP Karen retail outlet and asks a few of the staff about their working conditions. Why not ask them how long they have worked there and whether they have ever had any leave? Or do you have to have a baby before you are entitled to leave?

The sad thing is that multi national BP Kenya is aware of the breaches to the country’s Labour Act – and has been for sometime!

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