Kenya's opposition faces high prospects of a third straight defeat unless it moves fast to curtail the role of the heavily-politicised provincial administration in elections. 

The provincial administration, a relic of the colonial legacy, could still play a major role in the next elections to the benefit of Kanu, unless the expected new constitutional dispensation or minimum constitutional amendments specifically bar it from active participation in politics.

Besides the enduring perception by the opposition that Kanu used this outfit to rig presidential elections in 1992 and 1997, various post-election reports indicated that the provincial administration, right from Provincial Commissioners (PCs), District Commissioners (DCs), District Officers (DOs) to chiefs, contributed at least 50 per cent to Kanu's victory in the 1992 elections through orchestrated harassment and intimidation of opposition candidates. 

Their role included harassing opposition candidates and supporters, and even distributing food and money on behalf of the ruling party, while employing the police and security forces to disrupt opposition meetings and keenly monitor their activities.

Notably, the elections came soon after the Kanu government grudgingly gave in to demands for political pluralism.

Critics now argue that Kanu's decision to allow multipartyism was largely a panic reaction to the abrupt cessation of rapid disbursement aid from the West, rather than a response to local pressure. 

Late last month, an opposition-sponsored private members' motion in parliament seeking to have provincial administration officers elected directly by the people as a means of clipping their immense powers was defeated when the numerically advantaged Kanu voted against it.

The Democratic Party (DP) MP for Kasarani, Mr Adolf Muchiri, who sponsored the motion, unsuccessfully argued that the provincial administration "is a colonial relic that does not operate under any specific law since the officers are presidential appointees."

Strong support from Ford-Kenya chairman and presidential hopeful Kijana Wamalwa did little to convince the government side, which maintained, through Minister in the Office of the President Julius Sunkuli, that the provincial administration had served the country well and that "there is nowhere in the world where civil servants are elected by the public." 

But the underlying reason for the move, political analysts say, is the increasing realisation within the opposition camp that in their efforts to kick out Kanu and President Moi, they had lost sight of Kanu's main strength – its immense control over state machinery. 

"Provincial administration officers, being appointees of the executive, cannot shake off the temptation to be partisan in a political environment where the appointing authority has vested interests," Ms Miriam Kahiga, a programme officer with the Centre for Governance and Development, said.

Before the 1997 Inter-Parties Parliamentary Group (IPPG) reforms took away the power to issue campaign licences from the provincial administration, a number of administrators overtly took sides with the ruling party under the guise of "serving the government of the day" while, in reality, safeguarding Kanu's interests at the expense of the opposition.

PCs, DCs and DOs are known to attend Kanu political functions in their official regalia, contrary to the civil service code that requires them to be impartial, while at the constituency level, DOs head the division security committee and have considerable influence over regular and administration police as well as intelligence personnel.

With President Moi set for retirement at the end of this year, keen observers of Kenya's political arena say that Kanu would be unwilling to let go of an outfit that provides it with an essential framework of control over rural areas, where Kenyan elections are either won or lost.

The Safina Party leader, Mr Paul Muite, is among those who believe that whoever will be the Kanu presidential candidate will be in greater need of the state machinery that the party effectively employed to keep the opposition in check in the past two multiparty elections.

Signs that the provincial administration is likely to be used once more to serve Kanu's political interests were clearly demonstrated in late 2000 and in the first half of last year, when it was effectively used to curtail the activities of the Muungano wa Mageuzi (Coalition for Change) lobby led by Ugenya MP James Orengo. 

In the 1992 election campaigns, opposition applications to hold rallies were rejected outright and local candidates harassed into submission.

Such harassment, according to records, prevented the opposition from conducting campaigns in a third of the country's 188 constituencies.

As a result, Kanu had a headstart, with 17 members going in unopposed, the bulk of them in the Rift Valley.

Ms Kahiga is of the view that the problem of the provincial administration that according to her, "undertakes local governance at the expense of local authorities", can be best tackled within the constitutional review framework to harmonise and rationalise the "dormant" local governance.